Food Scarcity: An Environmental Wake-up Call

Summary of Selection 28

As environmental damage increases it will inevitably affect the global economy. Every kind of environmental degredation has consequences. Deforestation leads to soil erosion and flooding; carbon released leads to climate change; overusing our aquifers lead to water shortages; overfishing to fisheries collapsing; overgrazing to deforestation; plant and animal decline to ecosystem collapse. Agriculture is the link between environmental deterioration and economic decline. Rising prices of food will be an indicator that economic decline has begun, which will lead to social and political instability. The high prices will have an especially bad effect on the poor of the world; riots would probably ensue, affecting corporations, stock markets and stability. These effects would ultimately affect affluent countries as well. It is becoming more and more difficult to feed the world population (which is growing at 800 million/year), and there are already over 800 million people malnourished in our world. If food prices rose, this number would certainly increase.

Farmers across the world have used methods to increase the land base for farming. Some examples are irrigation, terracing, drainage, fallowing and more. Through these ingenious methods, grain production has increased over time. However, it hasn't kept up with population growth. The grain-land area/person has been shrinking since mid-century. In 1996 there were 0.2 hectares/person. If our grain-land area remains stable and population continues to climb, it is projected that by 2030 there will only be 0.08 hectares/person.

Farmers face the threat of water scarcity. There is a battle between the demand for water for irrigation vs. residential demand. Irrigation is crucial in grain production; grain production was increased by 3X from 1950-90 due to irrigation. Most wheat and rice is grown on irrigated land, although the growth of irrigation has fallen behind population growth. This trend will continue due to the extensive aquifer depletion in the China, India, and the USA (which produce 1/2 the world's grain harvest) and also due to the competition between the cities and countryside for water. Typically the cities win, decreasing production, causing the country/city to import grain.

We can already see the evidence of food scarcity all around us...in the decreased production of oceans (fisheries) and grainland, in the fact that world carryover stocks of grain cannot be replenished, and increasing food prices. Should we take food scarcity as an environmental wake-up call? We must find a balance between food and people. This means finding a balance regarding population control and stabilization, finding environmental solutions, developing technology to help with climate change, and increasing our efficiency in all areas. We need to make better choices and improve our land use policy. For example, there is currently a debate going on in China over auto transport vs. bicycle/rail- there isn't enough land to both feed people and build huge roads and parking lots, so activisits are campaigning for a bicycle and rail system instead.

Food security may mean that the "American Dream" isn't at all realistic. Until recently we have had 3 world food reserves to draw on in case of scarcity.
1) cropland idled under farm programs
2) surplus stocks of grain in storage
3) 1/3 of total world grain harvest that is fed to livestock, poultry, and fish
The first 2 have have been depleted. Drawing on #3 is the "unpopular choice" because people do not want to give up meat...but realistically if the grain was used to directly feed people instead of to feed livestock (which are then fed to people), many many more would be fed. Perhaps there should be a tax on the consumption of livestock products. Our food security depends on creating an environmentally sustainable economy.